---
{
  "id": "ASD-EXP-TESTS-MUON-SURVIVAL",
  "path": "/tests/muon-survival",
  "title": "μ 子存活与通量研究工作台",
  "title_en": "Muon Survival and Flux Workbench",
  "category": "实验研究计划",
  "summary": "P2 · ASD-PRED-002。将产生分布、路径、衰变和接受度连接到计数；ASD 统计映射保持开放。",
  "template": "test",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "updated": "2026-09-22",
  "date_published": "2026-09-22",
  "canonical": false,
  "source_tier": "published",
  "theory_status": "OPEN",
  "evidence_status": "UNTESTED",
  "locale": "zh",
  "module_key": "experimental-program",
  "module_navigation": [
    {
      "path": "/tests",
      "label": "实验计划",
      "en": "Program"
    },
    {
      "path": "/tests/predictions",
      "label": "预测登记",
      "en": "Registry"
    },
    {
      "path": "/tests/falsification",
      "label": "证伪范围",
      "en": "Falsification"
    },
    {
      "path": "/tests/priority-experiments",
      "label": "优先实验",
      "en": "Priorities"
    },
    {
      "path": "/tests/reproducibility",
      "label": "复现标准",
      "en": "Reproducibility"
    }
  ],
  "canonical_scope": "实验研究计划；不新增正式物理结论",
  "source_chapter": "Existing canonical module snapshots / 现有正式模块快照",
  "source_reference": "Predictions & Falsification v1.0 · review 2026-09-22",
  "source_version": "EXP-7ca61744dcd2",
  "source_sha256": "7ca61744dcd2129e7fcd6902223c71166f3ededeb84b599d544cb20dba88130a",
  "source_kind": "manifest",
  "source_manifest": "predictions-source-manifest.json",
  "source_manifest_url": "/downloads/ASD_Predictions_Source_Manifest.json",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-09-22",
  "depends_on": [
    "/theory/lve/tests",
    "/open-problems/lve-muon-decay"
  ],
  "related": [
    "/tests",
    "/tests/predictions",
    "/tests/falsification",
    "/tests/priority-experiments",
    "/tests/reproducibility"
  ],
  "open_problems": [],
  "equations": [
    "lve-process",
    "lve-muon"
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Predictions source and scope manifest",
      "kind": "research-program",
      "url": "/downloads/ASD_Predictions_Source_Manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ota et al. (2022), Nature Physics 18, 1436–1440",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-022-01767-w",
      "kind": "external-reference"
    },
    {
      "label": "PDG (2024), Cosmic Rays review",
      "url": "https://pdg.lbl.gov/2024/reviews/rpp2024-rev-cosmic-rays.pdf",
      "kind": "external-reference"
    },
    {
      "label": "Wolf et al. (2006), Cold Atom Clock Test of Lorentz Invariance in the Matter Sector",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0601024",
      "kind": "external-reference"
    },
    {
      "label": "BACON Collaboration (2021), optical frequency ratio network",
      "url": "https://www.nist.gov/publications/frequency-ratio-measurements-18-digit-accuracy-using-network-optical-clocks",
      "kind": "external-reference"
    },
    {
      "label": "PDG 2024 muon listing",
      "url": "https://pdg.lbl.gov/2024/listings/rpp2024-list-muon.pdf",
      "kind": "external-reference"
    }
  ],
  "outline": [
    "真正的计数模型",
    "LVE 的现有内容与缺口",
    "数据选择与误差",
    "判别与下一份交付"
  ],
  "seo_title": "μ 子存活与通量研究工作台 | ASD Predictions & Falsification v1.0",
  "canonical_url": "https://asd-physics.org/tests/muon-survival",
  "translation_path": "/en/tests/muon-survival",
  "mathematical_review": "INCOMPLETE",
  "evidence_note": "尚无闭合定量判别预测；工作台为规划或比较模型。"
}
---
<MuonWorkbench />

## 真正的计数模型

装置预测应按 bin 计算

$$N_i=T\int dE\,d\Omega\,dh\;\Phi_0(E,\Omega,h)\,P(E,\Omega,h)\,A_{\rm eff}(E,\Omega,h)\,R_i(E,\Omega,h)+B_i.$$

这里 $\Phi_0$ 是产生分布，$A_{\rm eff}$ 含几何与效率，$R_i$ 含重建迁移，$B_i$ 是背景。能损存在时，用输运演化后的 $\beta(s),\gamma(s)$ 计算比较模型 $P_{\rm SR}=\exp[-\int ds/(\beta\gamma c\tau_\mu)]$。ASD 需要独立给出相应衰变律，不能将路径缩放因子直接塞进指数。

## LVE 的现有内容与缺口

<Equation name="lve-process" />
<Equation name="lve-muon" />

现有示例给出 $L/L'=\gamma(1+\beta)$。$L'$ 对应单次事件、均值还是寿命路径尚需明确。同一统计量未对齐前，不能宣称已获得与标准存活率不同的预测。原矩阵中的 TENSION 状态保留。

## 数据选择与误差

[PDG 2024 宇宙线综述](https://pdg.lbl.gov/2024/reviews/rpp2024-rev-cosmic-rays.pdf) 提供测量与输运文献入口，它本身不是已整理的本实验逐事件输入。优先选有动量/角度定义、曝光、效率和系统误差的表格；地面谱不能直接当作未经衰变的产生谱。先复现比较模型再接入 ASD。

工作台使用参考常数 $m_\mu c^2=0.1056583755\,\mathrm{GeV}$、$\tau_\mu=2.1969811\,\mu\mathrm s$；它们是外部测量输入，不是 ASD 输出。单高度、恒能曲线仅为代数基线。下载包提供分 bin 接受度卷积示例，仍明确标记合成输入。

## 判别与下一份交付

公开每个 bin 的残差和共同似然；传播生产谱、大气、能损和接受度不确定性。若允许自由逐 bin 归一化，模型差异可能失去可识别性。下一份交付是 L′ 的统计定义、ASD 危险率与一套有出处的观测输入，见 [OP-LVE-01](/open-problems/lve-muon-decay)。


参考常数来源：[PDG 2024 muon](https://pdg.lbl.gov/2024/listings/rpp2024-list-muon.pdf).